Birmingham City vs Leeds United Lineups, Prediction, Team News, Injury And Preview

Birmingham City vs Leeds United Prediction: Leeds United will likely defeat Birmingham City 3-2 in the FA Cup fifth round on Sunday, February 15, 2026, as the Premier League side’s superior attacking quality should overcome Birmingham’s strong home form at St Andrew’s, though the Championship hosts will make the match competitive by scoring at least twice.

Match Overview

Detail	Information
Competition	FA Cup 2025/2026
Date	Sunday, 15 February 2026
Kick-off Time	5:30 PM Local Time
Venue	St Andrew’s @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham
Birmingham Form	W-D-W-W-D (Last 5 all competitions)
Leeds Form	W-D-L-W-D (Last 5 all competitions)
Last Meeting	Birmingham 1-0 Leeds (August 2023)

Key Facts

• Birmingham City enters this FA Cup tie unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions, collecting five wins and three draws since their New Year’s Day defeat at Watford.
• Leeds United rescued a 2-2 draw at Chelsea on Tuesday night, with Lukas Nmecha and Noah Okafor finding the net to extend their unbeaten run to five matches in six outings.
• The hosts remain unbeaten in their last 11 home fixtures at St Andrew’s, losing just once in 16 home Championship matches this season.
• Birmingham sits 10th in the Championship table, one point behind the playoff positions, while Leeds occupies 15th place in the Premier League, six points clear of the relegation zone.
• Chris Davies’ Birmingham side defeated League Two Cambridge United 3-2 in the third round, while Daniel Farke’s Leeds came from behind to beat Derby County away.
• Leeds holds a favorable recent record against Birmingham, winning three of their last four encounters before losing at St Andrew’s in August 2023.

Birmingham City vs Leeds United Preview and Prediction

Birmingham City welcomes Leeds United to St Andrew’s for what promises to be an intriguing FA Cup fifth-round encounter between two clubs with contrasting fortunes this season.

The Blues, who claimed the League One title last term, have adapted impressively to Championship football under Chris Davies, while Leeds, the previous Championship winners, continue their battle to establish themselves in the Premier League.

The hosts arrive at this fixture with momentum firmly on their side. Their eight-game unbeaten streak has transformed their season after that damaging 3-0 loss at Watford opened 2026.

Birmingham collected 15 points from seven Championship matches during this period, climbing to within touching distance of the playoff places.

Their defensive solidity at home has been particularly impressive, with St Andrew’s becoming a fortress where opponents struggle to find success.

Leeds United faces a different challenge. The Yorkshire club has endured a difficult Premier League campaign, particularly away from Elland Road, where results have been inconsistent.

However, their recent draw at Stamford Bridge demonstrated their resilience and quality. Nmecha’s sixth league goal and Okafor’s fourth strike showed that Leeds possesses attacking threats capable of troubling any defense.

Expected Birmingham City vs Leeds United Lineups

Birmingham City Predicted Starting XI

Formation: 4-2-3-1

Goalkeeper: Ryan Allsop

Defenders: Tomoki Iwata (Right-back), Christoph Klarer (Center-back), Ben Davies/Krystian Bielik (Center-back), Kai Wagner (Left-back)

Midfielders: Marc Leonard (Defensive midfield), Willum Willumsson (Defensive midfield), Ayumu Yokoyama (Right wing), Keshi Anderson (Attacking midfield), Demarai Gray (Left wing)

Forward: Jay Stansfield (Striker)

Leeds United Predicted Starting XI

Formation: 3-4-3

Goalkeeper: Karl Darlow

Defenders: Maximilian Wöber (Right center-back), Ethan Ampadu (Center-back), Joe Rodon (Left center-back)

Midfielders: Jayden Bogle (Right wing-back), Ao Tanaka (Central midfield), Ilia Gruev (Central midfield), Sam Byram (Left wing-back)

Forwards: Wilfried Gnonto (Right wing), Lukas Nmecha (Striker), Noah Okafor (Left wing)

Note: Official lineups will be confirmed approximately one hour before the 5:30 PM kickoff on Sunday, 15 February 2026.

Team Formations and Tactical Setup

Birmingham City Expected Formation: 4-2-3-1

Chris Davies typically deploys a balanced 4-2-3-1 system that emphasizes width and quick transitions.

The Blues use their full-backs aggressively to provide attacking width while maintaining defensive stability through their double pivot in midfield.

Kai Wagner, the January signing from MLS, has already made an impact with his attacking runs from left-back.

Leeds United Expected Formation: 3-4-3

Daniel Farke has recently favored a three-center-back system that provides defensive security while allowing wing-backs to push forward.

This formation gives Leeds flexibility in possession and creates overloads in wide areas. The system has helped stabilize their defense while maintaining attacking options through their front three.

Injury Report and Team News

Birmingham City Injuries

The hosts face several significant absences. Paik Seung-ho suffered his second shoulder injury of the campaign during the West Brom draw, forcing an enforced midfield change.

The South Korean international had been a regular presence in Davies’ starting eleven before this setback.

Long-term casualties continue to impact Birmingham’s squad depth. Ethan Laird remains sidelined with a hamstring problem that has kept him out for several weeks.

Alex Cochrane’s ankle injury continues his extended absence, while Lee Buchanan’s knee issue means another defensive option remains unavailable.

Demarai Gray provides positive news for the hosts. The boyhood Birmingham supporter recovered from his calf injury to feature against West Brom and could start this FA Cup tie.

His local connection and technical ability make him a valuable asset for the Blues.

Leeds United Injuries

Dominic Calvert-Lewin missed the Chelsea match due to illness and remains doubtful for the Birmingham trip.

The striker’s absence would be significant, as he provides a physical presence and goal threat that Leeds values in their attacking setup.

Pascal Struijk’s hip problem keeps the Dutch defender out of contention. Struijk had become a key component of Leeds’ back three before his injury, and his absence weakens their defensive options.

Anton Stach also battles a hip-related issue, having last appeared in the 4-0 home defeat to Arsenal.

Key Injuries That Could Shift the Game

Paik Seung-ho’s absence disrupts Birmingham’s midfield balance. The South Korean provided energy and ball-winning ability in the center of the park, and his replacement must match his work rate and positional discipline.

Calvert-Lewin’s potential absence removes Leeds’ primary target man. The former Everton striker offers aerial dominance and hold-up play that allows Leeds to relieve pressure and bring others into attacks.

Without him, Leeds may struggle to establish a foothold in Birmingham’s half during difficult periods.

Read all Football Predictions.

Where to Watch Live

India Broadcasting:

Fans in India can watch the match live on Sony LIV, SONY TEN 2, SONY TEN 2 HD, and JioTV. All platforms require subscription access.

United Kingdom Broadcasting:

UK viewers can access the match through TNT Sports 3, discovery+, and the discovery+ App. Radio coverage is available on TalkSport Radio UK and BBC Radio 5 Live.

International Coverage:

The match receives global coverage across multiple territories. North American viewers can watch on Sportsnet (Canada) and ESPN2/ESPN Select (USA).

European nations have access through various DAZN platforms, Viaplay services, and beIN Sports networks depending on location.

Head-to-Head Analysis

The historical record between these clubs shows 134 previous meetings. Leeds holds the advantage with 56 victories compared to Birmingham’s 42 wins, while 36 matches ended in draws.

Recent encounters favor Leeds, who won three consecutive matches against Birmingham before losing at St Andrew’s in August 2023.

That 2023-24 season opener at Birmingham proved memorable for the hosts. Lukas Jutkiewicz scored the only goal to hand Blues a 1-0 victory, demonstrating that St Andrew’s can be an uncomfortable venue for Leeds.

The previous season saw contrasting results, with Leeds winning 3-0 at home on New Year’s Day 2024 before Birmingham claimed a 1-0 victory in August 2023.

The December 2019 Championship meeting produced a nine-goal thriller. Leeds emerged victorious 5-4 at St Andrew’s in a match that showcased both teams’ attacking capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities.

That result remains the highest-scoring encounter between these sides in recent memory.

Statistical Analysis

Birmingham’s home record provides their strongest foundation for optimism. The Blues collected 25 points from 16 home Championship matches, losing just once at St Andrew’s this season.

Their defensive organization at home has been particularly impressive, with clean sheets in seven of those 16 fixtures.

Leeds’ away form presents their biggest concern. The Whites won only three away matches all season across all competitions, with their sole recent road success coming in the FA Cup third round at Derby County.

This poor traveling record suggests vulnerability when facing determined opposition on hostile territory.

Birmingham averages 1.4 goals per home Championship match while conceding 0.8 goals per game at St Andrew’s.

These numbers demonstrate their balanced approach and defensive solidity on familiar turf. Leeds averages 1.2 goals per Premier League away match while conceding 2.1 goals per game on the road, highlighting their struggles to maintain defensive discipline away from Elland Road.

Key Players to Watch

Demarai Gray (Birmingham City)

The boyhood Blues fan brings Premier League experience and technical quality to Birmingham’s attack.

Gray’s ability to carry the ball at pace and create chances from wide positions makes him dangerous against any opponent. His emotional connection to the club could inspire an elevated performance.

Kai Wagner (Birmingham City)

The January arrival from MLS has already scored his first Birmingham goal and provides attacking thrust from left-back.

Wagner’s overlapping runs and delivery from wide areas create additional attacking dimensions for the hosts.

Lukas Nmecha (Leeds United)

The German striker has scored six Premier League goals this season and netted in the Chelsea draw. Nmecha combines physical presence with technical ability, making him a constant threat in the final third.

His movement and finishing could prove decisive.

Noah Okafor (Leeds United)

The Swiss forward has contributed four league goals and provides pace and directness to Leeds’ attack. Okafor’s ability to run in behind defenses and finish chances makes him a player Birmingham must monitor closely.

Current Standings

Championship Table (Birmingham City)

Birmingham occupies 10th position with 47 points from 29 matches. They sit one point behind Wrexham in sixth place, the final playoff position.

The Blues’ recent form has propelled them into genuine promotion contention after a mid-table start to the campaign.

Premier League Table (Leeds United)

Leeds sits in 15th place with 28 points from 25 matches. They maintain a six-point cushion above West Ham United in 18th place, the relegation zone’s upper boundary.

Recent results have eased immediate relegation concerns, but Leeds remains closer to danger than comfort.

Birmingham City vs Leeds United Prediction

This FA Cup tie presents Birmingham with an opportunity to test themselves against Premier League opposition at home, where they have been formidable.

Leeds’ poor away record and Birmingham’s home strength suggest a competitive encounter.

Birmingham’s eight-game unbeaten run and 11-match home unbeaten streak provide confidence.

The hosts will approach this match believing they can exploit Leeds’ traveling vulnerabilities. However, Leeds possesses superior individual quality and Premier League experience that could prove decisive in crucial moments.

The match should produce goals, as both teams have shown attacking intent recently.

Birmingham’s need to press for victory at home will create spaces for Leeds’ quick forwards to exploit on the counter-attack. Leeds’ defensive issues away from home suggest Birmingham will create chances.

Final Prediction: Birmingham City 2-3 Leeds United

Leeds’ top-flight quality should provide the narrow edge needed to progress, but Birmingham will make them work extremely hard for victory.

The hosts will score at least twice, but Leeds’ attacking options should prove sufficient to advance to the next round in what promises to be an entertaining cup tie.

FAQs