Derby County vs Leeds United Prediction: Leeds United will likely defeat Derby County 2-1 at Pride Park in the FA Cup third round on Sunday, as the Peacocks possess superior squad quality and recent form despite their poor away record, while Derby struggle at home with just one win in their last six matches at Pride Park Stadium.
Match Overview
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Competition | FA Cup Third Round 2025-26 |
| Date | Sunday, January 12, 2026 |
| Venue | Pride Park Stadium, Derby |
| Derby Position | 13th in Championship (26 games) |
| Leeds Position | 16th in Premier League (after 19 games) |
| Last Meeting | Derby 0-1 Leeds (December 29, 2024) |
| Derby Form | W-D-D-L-W-L |
| Leeds Form | D-W-D-D-D-L |
Key Facts
- Derby County host Leeds United at Pride Park for the FA Cup third round on Sunday afternoon.
- The Rams were eliminated at this stage last season by League One side Leyton Orient.
- Leeds United lost 2-0 to Millwall in the fourth round last season at Elland Road.
- Derby currently sit 13th in the Championship with better away form than home performance.
- Leeds United occupy 16th place in the Premier League, eight points above the relegation zone.
- The Peacocks have won the last three encounters between these two sides.
- Derby have not beaten Leeds at home in the previous five meetings.
- Leeds have won only one away match this Premier League season against Wolverhampton Wanderers.
- Derby won the FA Cup in 1946, defeating Charlton Athletic 4-1 at Wembley.
- Leeds claimed their only FA Cup trophy in 1972 with victory over Arsenal at Wembley.
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Derby County vs Leeds United Preview and Prediction
Derby County welcome Leeds United to Pride Park Stadium for what promises to be an intriguing FA Cup third round encounter.
The Rams have shown significant improvement after a difficult start to their Championship campaign, where they managed just one victory in their opening nine league matches.
John Eustace has steadied the ship, and his side now finds themselves in a comfortable mid-table position.
The hosts have demonstrated impressive away form this season, with only four Championship teams boasting better records on their travels.
However, Pride Park has not been a fortress.
Derby have secured just one victory in their last six home matches, earning 17 points at home compared to 18 away despite playing two additional games at their own ground.
Leeds United arrive in the East Midlands following a heartbreaking 4-3 defeat at Newcastle United on Wednesday evening.
Daniel Farke’s side led 3-2 after 91 minutes before late goals from Bruno Guimaraes and Harvey Barnes snatched victory for the Magpies.
The result highlighted both Leeds’ attacking quality and their defensive vulnerabilities.
The Peacocks have delivered encouraging performances recently, holding Liverpool to draws twice, thrashing Crystal Palace 4-1, and defeating Chelsea 3-1 at Elland Road.
These results demonstrate their capability to compete with top-tier opposition when conditions favor them.
Team Injuries and Availability
Derby County Injuries
Derby face several significant absences for this cup tie.
Max Johnston remains sidelined with a hamstring injury that has kept him out for over two months.
The club has also lost Owen Beck, who returned to Liverpool due to a similar hamstring problem.
Top scorer Carlton Morris cannot feature due to a knee injury, while midfielder David Ozoh is unavailable with a thigh problem.
Morris’s absence represents a considerable blow to Derby’s attacking options.
In his place, former Liverpool striker Rhian Brewster has led the line for the Rams.
Leeds United Injuries
Leeds manager Daniel Farke confirmed that Joe Rodon and Brenden Aaronson suffered only cramp during the Newcastle defeat, meaning both should be available for selection at Pride Park.
Sam Byram (back) and Jayden Bogle (calf) face late fitness tests to determine their availability. Both players will be assessed closer to kickoff.
Daniel James remains absent with a thigh injury. Farke stated the Welsh winger is approximately two weeks away from returning to action.
Key Injuries That Could Shift the Game
Carlton Morris’s absence significantly impacts Derby’s attacking threat.
The striker has been their primary goal source this season, and replacing his output places additional pressure on Brewster and the supporting attackers.
For Leeds, Daniel James’s continued absence removes a key outlet for counter-attacking football.
His pace and directness have been valuable assets when the Peacocks look to transition quickly from defense to attack.
Predicted Derby County vs Leeds United Lineups and Formation
Derby County Expected Lineup (3-4-2-1)
Goalkeeper: Widell Zetterstrom
Defense: Langas, Sanderson, Clarke
Midfield: Ward, Thompson, Clark, Elder
Attacking Midfield: Brereton Diaz, Agyemang
Forward: Brewster
Eustace typically employs a three-man defensive system that transitions into a five-man unit when defending.
The wing-backs provide width, while the two attacking midfielders support the lone striker.
Leeds United Expected Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Darlow
Defense: Justin, Rodon, Bornauw, Struijk
Defensive Midfield: Tanaka, Ampadu
Attacking Midfield: Gudmundsson, Gruev, Okafor
Forward: Nmecha
Farke favors a structured 4-2-3-1 formation that emphasizes possession and controlled build-up play.
The double pivot provides defensive stability while the attacking trio behind the striker offers creativity and goal threat.
Tactical Analysis
Derby’s three-man defense allows them to match up numerically against opposition forwards while providing extra security.
Their wing-backs push high to create overloads in wide areas, stretching opposing defenses.
The system requires significant fitness levels from the wing-backs, who must cover substantial ground throughout matches.
Leeds operate with a possession-based approach under Farke. The German manager prioritizes controlled build-up from the back, with center-backs comfortable receiving the ball under pressure.
The double pivot drops deep to create passing angles, while the attacking midfielders rotate positions to find space between opposition lines.
The tactical battle will center on whether Derby can disrupt Leeds’ possession game through aggressive pressing or whether the visitors can control tempo and create quality chances through patient build-up.
Head-to-Head Analysis and Historical Context
Recent history heavily favors Leeds United.
The Peacocks have won the last three meetings between these sides, including a 1-0 victory at Pride Park on December 29, 2024, and a 2-0 triumph at Elland Road on December 7, 2024.
Derby have not defeated Leeds at home in their last five encounters at Pride Park. This poor record creates additional psychological pressure on the hosts.
Looking at their ten most recent meetings:
- Leeds have won six matches
- Derby have won two matches
- Two matches ended in draws
The 2018-19 season saw a memorable Championship playoff semi-final between these clubs.
Derby won the first leg 1-0 at home before Leeds claimed a 2-0 victory at Elland Road.
However, Derby progressed 4-3 on aggregate after a dramatic 4-2 win in the second leg at Elland Road.
Player Impact and Key Players to Watch
Derby County
Rhian Brewster carries the attacking burden in Morris’s absence. The former Liverpool striker possesses technical quality and movement that can trouble Premier League defenses. His hold-up play will be crucial in bringing teammates into attacking positions.
Brereton Diaz provides creativity and goal threat from attacking midfield. His ability to find space between lines and deliver quality final balls makes him Derby’s primary creative outlet.
Leeds United
Ao Tanaka has impressed since joining Leeds, providing energy and ball-winning ability in midfield. His positioning and reading of the game help protect the defense while his passing range initiates attacks.
Gabriel Gudmundsson offers pace and directness from wide positions. The winger’s ability to beat defenders one-on-one creates space for teammates and stretches opposition defenses.
Largie Ramazani (if selected) brings unpredictability and flair. His dribbling ability and eye for goal make him dangerous in attacking transitions.
Where to Watch Live?
The match will be broadcast across multiple territories worldwide:
United Kingdom: TNT Sports 2, discovery+, discovery+ App, TalkSport Radio UK, BBC Radio 5 Live
United States: ESPN Select, fuboTV, ESPN App
Canada: Sportsnet East, Sportsnet Ontario, Sportsnet Pacific, Sportsnet West, Sportsnet World, Sportsnet Plus
Australia: Stan Sport
Germany: DAZN Germany, DAZN1 Germany, Sky Go
International viewers can check local listings for availability in their region, with coverage spanning across Europe, Asia, Africa, and South America through various broadcasters.
Current Standings
Championship (Derby County): 13th position after 26 matches
Premier League (Leeds United): 16th position, eight points above relegation zone
Derby have accumulated 35 points from 26 Championship matches, placing them comfortably in mid-table.
Their 17 home points and 18 away points highlight the need for improved home form.
Leeds have collected 22 points from 19 Premier League matches.
Their struggles away from home have contributed to their lower-than-expected league position, with just six points earned from 11 away matches.
Derby County vs Leeds United Prediction
Derby will approach this fixture with confidence despite their poor recent record against Leeds.
FA Cup matches often produce unexpected results, and the home crowd at Pride Park will create an intimidating atmosphere for the visitors.
Leeds possess superior individual quality and have shown their ability to perform against strong opposition.
However, their away form remains a significant concern. The Peacocks have struggled to replicate their home performances on the road throughout this season.
The match should be competitive, with Derby’s organized defensive structure making it difficult for Leeds to create clear chances.
However, Leeds’ quality in attacking positions should eventually prove decisive.
Predicted Score: Derby County 1-2 Leeds United
The visitors should progress to the fourth round, but Derby will make them work hard for the victory.
Leeds’ experience at the higher level and superior squad depth should be the difference in what promises to be an entertaining cup tie.
Read all Football Predictions.
FAQs
Where To Watch Derby County vs Leeds United Live?
Fans can watch Derby County vs Leeds United live on TNT Sports 2 and discovery+ in the United Kingdom, while viewers in the United States can stream the FA Cup third round match through ESPN Select, fuboTV, and the ESPN App, with additional coverage available on BBC Radio 5 Live and TalkSport Radio UK for audio commentary.
Who Will Win Derby County vs Leeds United Match?
Leeds United will likely win the Derby County match based on their superior Premier League-level squad quality and three consecutive victories over the Rams, although Derby’s home advantage at Pride Park and Leeds’ poor away form this season (only one road win) could make the contest closer than expected.
What is Derby County vs Leeds United Match Kick-Off Time?
Derby County vs Leeds United kicks off on Sunday afternoon, January 12, 2026, at Pride Park Stadium in the FA Cup third round, though the exact kick-off time varies by broadcast region and should be confirmed through local listings or official club channels.
Are There Any Injuries in Derby County vs Leeds United Match?
Derby County will miss top scorer Carlton Morris (knee), Max Johnston (hamstring), Owen Beck (hamstring), and David Ozoh (thigh), while Leeds United will be without Daniel James (thigh) for approximately two more weeks, though Joe Rodon and Brenden Aaronson recovered from cramp and should be available, with Sam Byram (back) and Jayden Bogle (calf) facing late fitness tests.
What Is The Correct Score Prediction For Derby County vs Leeds United Match?
The predicted score for Derby County vs Leeds United is 1-2 in favor of the visitors, as Leeds’ attacking quality demonstrated in recent wins over Chelsea (3-1) and Crystal Palace (4-1) should overcome Derby’s defensive organization despite the Rams’ improved form under John Eustace.
Leeds United Standing with Points?
Leeds United currently sit in 16th position in the Premier League table with 22 points from 19 matches, placing them eight points above the relegation zone but struggling significantly away from home with only six points earned from 11 road matches this season.
Derby County Standing With Points?
Derby County occupy 13th position in the Championship table with 35 points from 26 matches, having recovered from winning just one of their first nine league games to establish mid-table security, though their home form remains concerning with only 17 points earned at Pride Park compared to 18 points collected away.