St Pauli vs RB Leipzig Prediction: RB Leipzig will likely defeat St Pauli 2-0 as the fifth-placed visitors possess superior attacking quality and defensive organization compared to the relegation-threatened hosts who have scored the fewest goals in the Bundesliga this season.
Match Overview
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Competition | Bundesliga 2025/2026 Season |
| Match Week | 16 |
| Date | Wednesday, January 28, 2026 |
| Kick-off Time | 1:00 AM (Local Time) |
| Venue | Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg |
| St Pauli Position | 17th Place (13 Points) |
| RB Leipzig Position | 5th Place (35 Points) |
Key Facts
- St Pauli enter this fixture sitting in 17th position with just 13 points from 18 matches, occupying the relegation playoff spot.
- RB Leipzig currently hold 5th place with 35 points from 18 games, chasing Champions League qualification.
- The teams have met three times recently, with Leipzig winning twice (2-0 and 4-2) and drawing once (0-0) in September 2024.
- St Pauli have recorded the fewest shots (156) and lowest expected goals (12.2) in the entire Bundesliga this season.
- Leipzig suffered back-to-back defeats before the winter break, losing 3-1 to both Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin.
- St Pauli remain unbeaten in their last four matches across all competitions, winning twice and drawing twice.
- RB Leipzig forward Yan Diomande is unavailable due to Africa Cup of Nations duty with Ivory Coast.
- St Pauli defender David Nemeth has missed the entire season despite starting 24 Bundesliga matches last campaign.
On This Page
St Pauli vs RB Leipzig Preview and Prediction
St Pauli face a critical challenge as they welcome RB Leipzig to Millerntor-Stadion.
The hosts desperately need points to escape the relegation zone, while Leipzig aim to solidify their Champions League qualification hopes.
Alexander Blessin’s St Pauli showed resilience before the winter break, holding Mainz 05 to a goalless draw on December 21.
However, their attacking struggles remain evident, managing only one shot on target during that entire match.
The club has produced just four goals in their last four league games, matching their output from the previous nine fixtures combined.
Leipzig arrive in Hamburg seeking redemption after consecutive defeats damaged their top-four ambitions.
Ole Werner’s side lost 3-1 to both Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin in December, ending a strong run that saw them score 11 goals in four matches while keeping three clean sheets.
The gap between these teams is substantial. Leipzig sit 22 points ahead of St Pauli, reflecting the quality difference between Champions League contenders and relegation battlers.
Team News and Injuries
St Pauli Injuries
David Nemeth (defender) – Long-term absence, has not featured this season despite being a regular starter last campaign
RB Leipzig Injuries
Yan Diomande (winger) – Away on international duty with Ivory Coast at the Africa Cup of Nations
St Pauli’s injury situation is relatively manageable, with only Nemeth sidelined.
His absence has forced Blessin to rely on Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, and Karol Mets in central defense throughout the season.
Leipzig’s loss of Diomande removes an attacking option, but Werner has adequate replacements in Conrad Harder, Romulo, and Tidiam Gomis.
The visitors otherwise have their full squad available, including key midfielders Forzan Assan Ouedraogo, Nicolas Seiwald, and Christoph Baumgartner.
Expected Lineups and Formation
St Pauli (3-5-2): Vasilj; Wahl, Smith, Mets; Pyrka, Fujita, Sands, Irvine, Ritzka; Kaars, Lage
RB Leipzig (4-2-3-1): Gulacsi; Baku, Orban, Lukeba, Raum; Ouedraogo, Seiwald; Harder, Baumgartner, Romulo; Gomis
Tactical Analysis
St Pauli typically deploy a three-man defense with wing-backs providing width. Joel Chima Fujita, James Sands, and Jackson Irvine form the midfield core, tasked with disrupting opposition attacks and launching quick transitions.
The attacking duo of Kaars and Lage must capitalize on limited opportunities.
Leipzig favor a possession-based approach with aggressive pressing. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allows flexibility, with full-backs Baku and Raum pushing forward to create overloads.
The double pivot of Ouedraogo and Seiwald provides defensive stability while initiating attacks. Baumgartner operates as the creative hub behind the striker.
The key tactical battle will occur in midfield. St Pauli must prevent Leipzig from establishing rhythm, while Leipzig will seek to exploit spaces behind St Pauli’s wing-backs when they push forward.
Key Players to Watch
Jackson Irvine (St Pauli)
The Australian midfielder provides leadership and energy in the center of the park. His ability to break up play and distribute effectively will be crucial for St Pauli’s defensive organization.
Christoph Baumgartner (RB Leipzig)
The Austrian attacking midfielder has been instrumental in Leipzig’s creative play. His movement between the lines and ability to find pockets of space could unlock St Pauli’s defense.
Willi Orban (RB Leipzig)
The experienced Hungarian center-back anchors Leipzig’s defense. His positioning and aerial dominance will be vital in neutralizing St Pauli’s direct attacking approach.
Head-to-Head Analysis
The recent history between these clubs heavily favors Leipzig. In their September 2024 Bundesliga meeting at Millerntor-Stadion, the teams played out a 0-0 draw.
However, Leipzig dominated the subsequent encounters, winning 2-0 at home in the league and crushing St Pauli 4-2 in the DFB-Pokal.
Looking further back, St Pauli secured a memorable 1-0 victory over Leipzig in February 2016 during the 2.
Bundesliga campaign. Leipzig also suffered a 0-1 defeat in August 2015 when both clubs competed in the second tier.
The tactical battle typically sees St Pauli adopt a defensive approach against superior opposition, while Leipzig press aggressively and dominate possession.
This pattern will likely continue given the current form and quality disparity.
Where to Watch Live
The match will be broadcast across multiple platforms globally. In Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Go, and WOW will provide coverage.
International viewers can access the game through various regional broadcasters including DAZN (Spain, Portugal, Japan), beIN Sports (Middle East, Southeast Asia), and ESPN+ (USA).
Statistical Comparison
St Pauli’s defensive record shows 26 goals conceded in 18 matches, giving them the joint-best defensive record among the bottom five teams.
However, their attacking output remains the league’s weakest with only 16 goals scored.
Leipzig have netted 36 goals while conceding 24 in 18 matches. Their goal difference of +12 reflects their quality, though recent defensive lapses have cost them points.
St Pauli have managed just two clean sheets all season, while Leipzig kept three clean sheets in four matches before their December slump.
The hosts have won only once at home in their last five Bundesliga fixtures, while Leipzig have failed to win any of their last three away matches.
Current Bundesliga Standings
Top 5 Teams:
- Bayern München – 50 points (16W, 2D, 1L)
- Borussia Dortmund – 42 points (12W, 6D, 1L)
- Hoffenheim – 36 points (11W, 3D, 4L)
- Stuttgart – 36 points (11W, 3D, 5L)
- RB Leipzig – 35 points (11W, 2D, 5L)
Bottom 3 Teams:
16. Mainz 05 – 15 points (3W, 6D, 10L)
17. St Pauli – 13 points (3W, 4D, 11L)
18. Heidenheim – 13 points (3W, 4D, 12L)
St Pauli vs RB Leipzig Prediction
Leipzig possess superior quality across all positions and should control this match.
St Pauli’s attacking limitations suggest they will struggle to create clear chances against Leipzig’s organized defense.
The visitors need to bounce back from their December defeats and will be motivated to secure three points.
St Pauli’s recent unbeaten run provides some confidence, but the quality gap remains too significant.
Leipzig’s ability to dominate possession and create chances should prove decisive.
A 2-0 victory for the visitors appears the most likely outcome, with Leipzig keeping a clean sheet against St Pauli’s toothless attack.
The match represents a crucial opportunity for Leipzig to close the gap on the top four, while St Pauli must find a way to frustrate their opponents and steal points to aid their survival battle.
Read all Football Predictions.
FAQs
Where To Watch St Pauli vs RB Leipzig Live?
Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Go, and WOW broadcast St Pauli vs RB Leipzig live in Germany, while international viewers can watch through DAZN in Spain and Japan, beIN Sports in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and ESPN+ in the United States.
Who Will Win St Pauli vs RB Leipzig Match?
RB Leipzig will likely win the match against St Pauli because the fifth-placed visitors have scored 36 goals this season and possess stronger squad depth, while the relegation-threatened hosts have managed only 16 goals and recorded the lowest expected goals (12.2) in the entire Bundesliga.
What is St Pauli vs RB Leipzig Match Kick-Off Time?
St Pauli vs RB Leipzig kicks off at 1:00 AM local time on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, during matchweek 16 of the Bundesliga 2025/2026 season at Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg.
Are There Any Injuries in St Pauli vs RB Leipzig Match?
St Pauli miss defender David Nemeth who has not played all season, while RB Leipzig are without winger Yan Diomande who is representing Ivory Coast at the Africa Cup of Nations, though Leipzig have adequate replacements in Conrad Harder, Romulo, and Tidiam Gomis.
What Is The Correct Score Prediction For St Pauli vs RB Leipzig Match?
The predicted score is RB Leipzig 2-0 St Pauli because Leipzig need to recover from consecutive defeats and possess superior attacking quality, while St Pauli have produced only 156 shots this season (the fewest in the Bundesliga) and managed just one shot on target in their last match.
St Pauli Standing with Points?
St Pauli currently sit in 17th place with 13 points from 18 matches (3 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses), occupying the relegation playoff position with a goal difference of -15 after scoring 16 goals and conceding 31.
RB Leipzig Standing With Points?
RB Leipzig hold 5th place with 35 points from 18 matches (11 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses), sitting just three points behind second-placed Borussia Dortmund and two points ahead of sixth-placed Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League qualification race with a +12 goal difference.